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October 2011 Market Calls

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Market forecasters are a dime a dozen. From around the water cooler, to the street corner and the all over the world wild web (never mind the multitude of tv talking heads and "expert" pundits) market advice is cheap and usually worse than worthless because it can hurt you and your clients.

The results are in and in one of the most volatile markets in years our short term calls exceed 67%+ and our long term over 86%+ accuracy!

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Frequently, we are not just right but bang on accurate. In a world of huge egos and billions of dollars under management it is a unique and powerful combination...right, accurate and humble that is. 

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Below are a few report highlights from our recent past issues (more on the way).

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Some of Our Recent, Market Calls (more coming soon)

Feb. 7, 2012 - Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. BWLD

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. BWLD was one of the stocks we started featuring as a potential breakout candidate a few weeks ago. We had an $80 target on it – that has been hit in spectacular fashion in after hours tonight. The most aggressive near-term  target could be as high as $86, but probably not without some backing and filling first.

I recommend taking at least partial  profits here. I will update it after it gets more trading done.

3/15/11 - MSR Advance Notice of Highs and Lows Well In Advance

FILE - 620 - Strategy Report March 15, 2011  Stocks.pdf

"Downside Pivots: The pivot from the Jan. 28th sell off at 1275 seemed to work. Below that there is support around 1225 -1250."

5/27/11 S&P update

Last Thursday May 19th we sent out an alert on the S&P, suggesting the top "resistance" line on the hourly channel would hold. It turned down shortly thereafter and went down to the lower "oversold" support line. The low on May 24th closed the gap from mid-April, and that low has held - actually one can see a small false undercut ("spring") at the open on May 25th. It also hit the first important trendline off the March 2009 lows which intersected the June 2010 low. Since then it has retraced 2/3rds of that drop, and on the Emini June's one can see more of a three wave "ABC" -style rebound into today.

Now the S&P is testing the resistance line of the hourly channel again, as well as the underside of the 200-period m.a. It is actually more overbought on the hourly oscillators (e.g. the CCI, RSI, Full Stoch, ULT and MACD) than it was on May 19th. The number of NYSE stocks below their respective 50-day and 200 day m.a.'s is worse than on May 19th. If this is just a normal retrace rebound within a continuing downtrend, it should stop the rebound below the 1337-1340 area. If, however, the 4% correction already seen is all we get, then a breakout above 1340 would open the door for a retest of 1370 and possibly a run back to the 1400 -1440 area.

So far in this quarter the market has acted a lot less urgent than one would have expected, certainly less than I expected. Clearly there is a lot of disagreement amongst investors regarding direction. I think the dollar is
in the process of bottoming, but that near-term it can pull back to test the late April - early May lows. That would make things easier for the S&P ( and precious metals) to make near-term upside progress, although today the bids
are lacking despite distinct dollar weakness. So short-term there are some cross-currents that are complicating matters.

I think we will have to be patient here to see what the market will tell us about its direction. Hourly traders will likely focus on 1337 - 1340 for upside pivots and the 1320- 1325 area for reversal pivots.

 

5/11 S&P

The S&P cash is coming up on an important resistance line  (see chart below). The S&P June futures are already at their corresponding resistance line.

As we can see, the market has put in a series of lower highs and lower lows, so it is in a short-term  downtrend. It appears that if the S&P can break above, and stay above , the 1350 area then it can reverse the trend. However a host of internal indicators suggest resistance will hold. We also note NYSE margin debt and debit balance levels are back to early 2008 levels, and well above the levels at the 2000 top; and NYSE "available cash" is at the 2007 lows.  So the market needs to prove it can continue here and it is at a decision point. It will probably tell us today if it can break the downtrend or not.

SPX 5-19-2011

 

5/10 MSR Advance Notice of Highs and Lows Well in Advance

In MSR #564, Jan. 5 2010, see page 13 re call for a summer low

see in MSR #566, page 11 we talk about our model for 2010. High in April - May, low around August, then "spectacular rally". I updated this outlook as we went along, raising the targets for the low, but you can see we had it pretty accurate well in advance.

FILES - 564 - Strategy Report Jan.5, 2010.pdf
566 - Strategy Report Jan. 19, 2010.pdf

US dollar May 4, 2011

another dollar followup, at the low

US dollar May 4, 2011

US Dollar: See chart at the bottom of this page. The "Public opinion" poll is the lowest in recent memory. I think this is pretty representative of how the public really feels about the greenback.

Below, we present the original work of Ross Clark as regards a very interesting repeating pattern he has identified. He writes,

"It is not often that we come across a pattern that repeats three consecutive times. The U.S. Dollar index is in such a position. The decline from 2001 matches the structure of the decline from 1985. The current action correlates with the basing in July 1980 and April 1995. In the short term, a successful test of the low and 20-day Bollinger Band over the next few days followed by an upside reversal should be capable of reaching the 20-week moving average (currently 76.40). Sentiment is at the lowest level in over five years and could easily be a catalyst for quick upside movement".

dollar setup 5-04.gif

Precious metals gold call for January low update 1-25-11

We will be going into more detail in the Macro Market Strategy Report which will be published later today. Here's a brief update:

Gold has now hit our first target for this expected correction, and is back to the same support area as the Oct-Nov 2010 lows. We've been saying that we'd like to see the RSI on gold and silver to reach the low 30's - the RSI on gold got down to 32 intraday, which is the same reading as at the July 2010 low; the RSI on the silver futures at 33 is the lowest since early Feb 2010.

Cycle-wise, the low for the pm's were expected to come in sometime between this week and next (Jan. 24th at the earliest, Feb . 4th at the latest). So we have the initial conditions here for at least a trading low. Not all gold issues are flashing buy signals like one might expect at a magnificent low, but please note Ross is getting a rare buy signal on Royal Gold.

Therefore, I recommend lightening up on the downside insurance (i.e. puts) that we urgently recommended two weeks ago, after warning for a few weeks prior that a trading top was likely forming.

Looking down the road: Typically when there is a correction like this there is a tendency for the pm's to rally back to test the underside of broken support (e.g. $28-29 in silver); then re-test the lows again. Often the retest of the lows is an undercut low (what Wyckoff called a "spring" low). If the scenario follows perfectly we'd expect a low in this late Jan time window, a choppy rebound through Feb, and then a second low in the first part of March (which is also the time window for other commodities to have a great buying opportunity low).

Note: the supply/demand equation is still heavily in favor of precious metals not putting in a bear market here despite the top in place. But naturally we need the market's actions to speak to us, so that we can be in sync with what the market wants.